2 April 2014
Talks between Cambodia’s ruling party and the
opposition to resolve the impasse over last year’s election have been
deadlocked for months. The two sides disagree on a number of issues, most
significantly reform of the National Election Committee (NEC). But signs of a
thaw have emerged, and a meeting between the leaders of the two parties looks
increasingly likely.
Cambodia has been in a state of political
paralysis since July’s disputed general election, in which the opposition
Cambodia National Rescue Party, or CNRP, shocked the ruling party when it won
nearly half of the votes and 55 of the 123 seats in parliament.
The opposition insists it was cheated of victory
by the ruling Cambodian People's Party, and has refused to seat its 55
lawmakers-elect until there is an independent investigation into alleged
irregularities or a new election.
The opposition also wants to change the NEC, whose
members are effectively appointed by the ruling party. The opposition wants NEC
appointments to instead be subject to a two-thirds vote in parliament, giving
it veto power to block members it opposes.
In a bid to step up pressure, the CNRP said in
recent days that beginning in May, it will hold daily demonstrations nationwide
in the run-up to district and provincial elections scheduled for May 18.
Opposition chief whip Son Chhay, the man leading
the CNRP’s negotiating team, said dialogue remains the preferred option.
“So I think when we still cannot find any solution
to settle the political crisis, the CNRP would be looking for working with the
public to demand the ruling party to commit themselves to solve the problem. So
that is a second option. But at the moment we’re still working on a political
compromise or solution to the crisis. So I hope that we could reach some sort
of agreement before May,” said Chhay.
Agreement might be closer than it appeared only
days ago. On Tuesday, Deputy Prime Minister Sar Kheng indicated that a meeting
between the leaders of the two parties is under discussion. It would be the
first such meeting between Prime Minister Hun Sen and opposition leader Sam
Rainsy since their summit in September, which ended with a vague agreement on
electoral reform.
Until now, the ruling party has dismissed the
opposition’s key demands, instead drafting a list of its own requirements,
including that election-monitoring NGOs be more strictly controlled. After the last round of failed talks, the
ruling party's chief negotiator said his side was prepared to push ahead with
its own reforms of the NEC.
However, long-time human rights activist and
political commentator Ou Virak said, that sort of one-sided approach is
unlikely to prove successful because the ruling party knows how close it came
to losing last year’s vote.
“Well I think that’s the only way if they are to
have legitimacy and prevent future election disputes as the one we have seen
now. If there’s no confidence in the NEC, there’s no confidence in the election
process, then you will be bound to continue repeating the impasse after every
election,” said Ou.
Corruption, land grabbing, low wages and a lack of
jobs are among the reasons many Cambodians voted for the opposition.
Post-election demonstrations saw tens of thousands march in the capital calling
for Prime Minister Hun Sen to quit - an unprecedented outcry against three
decades of his rule.
In response, authorities have banned public
gatherings and jailed nearly two-dozen protesters. In January, authorities shot
dead at least four garment workers who were protesting for a higher minimum
wage. The garment sector, with around 500,000 employees, is the country’s key
industry.
Ou said the ruling party, with an eye on the Arab
Spring, knows it needs to shore up its legitimacy among the Cambodian people.
“So public opinion now matters more than ever
before, and I think the ruling party is going to try to seek that. Basically
this is an unknown, unfamiliar territory for the ruling party where they are
forced to actually care about Cambodian public opinion,” said Ou.
Although that provides the opposition with some
leverage, he said, they must push for specific goals for electoral reform as
well as loosening state control over radio and television outlets.
“So if they hold out for that, then that would
give them a bit of a fairer playing field. It’s never going to be fair in
Cambodia. But I think that will give them a bit more of a chance in the
upcoming elections. I think they should go into parliament if they can get
these key concessions,” said Ou.
Looking ahead, Ou Virak doesn’t believe the ruling
party has the capacity to reform quickly enough to win the 2018 election
fairly. But that is only half the battle for the opposition: its challenge will
be to prove to the Cambodian people that it constitutes a credible alternative.
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