5 April 2014
Will political
situation in Cambodia continue to be like this or develop to be something else?
This question has been widely asked in Cambodia by businessmen, investors,
and diplomats. The very person who knows the answer for this question is Mr.
Sam Rainsy who has led the public rallies and boycotted the National Assembly.
As we’re approaching
the Khmer New Year, it’s worth shedding light on the political scenarios of the
opposion leader, a Cambodian-French politician, who is playing well with his
political strategy that makes it difficult for everyone to predict the future
of politics in Cambodia.
Below are the possible
scenarios of Mr. Sam Rainsy after the Khmer New Year:
First Scenario: End
of boycott
Up till now, Mr. Sam
Rainsy hasn’t spoken of attending the meetings of the 123-seat National
Assembly yet. He set a condition that he and his party would attend the
parliamentary session if the ruling Cambodian People’s Party agreed to hold
fresh election and the reform of the current controversial National Election
Committee. In fact, reelection means the rejection of the voting result which
also means the dissolution of the current National Assembly. As a result, there
will no longer be the National Assembly meetings.
The political deadlock
gave me an opportunity to meet several important diplomats from foreign
countries during dinner and lunch and exchange views on the political situation
in Cambodia. During the talks, many diplomats wanted the Cambodia National
Recue Party (CNRP) to attend the National Assembly meetings and to end the
demonstration that could easily lead to the violence at anytime. At the same
time, most of them also expressed the importance of the reforms of the National
Election Committee, judicial system, military and other institution in order
for Cambodia to have strong institutions which are necessary to maintain
political stability. These ideas were also supported by many intelectuals who
didn’t side with any political tendencies. They assumed that the situation in
Cambodia require the reforms of all institutions, yet a complete and abrupt
change might be dangerous for political stability in Cambodia.
The end of boycott can
be a scenario of Mr. Sam Rainsy who has unsuccessfully struggled outside the
National Assembly for 9 months by using the demonstration to demand for the
cancellation of the voting result and for the reelection. The number of people
joining the demonstration is decreasing now.
Mr. Sam Rainsy might
be a tough negotiator who will try to bargain as much as he can. But he will
eventually join the National Assembly. He will also need a good reason to
explain about his decision. The discussion in the National Assembly instead of
struggling on the streets is the best scenario for Cambodia due to the
institutional weakness and the need to maintain political stability in
Cambodia. This scenario is a win-win scenario. After the14-16 April Khmer New
Year, Sam Rainsy may may agree to join the National Assembly, ending the political
crisis.
Second Scenario: Mr. Sam Rainsy continues
boycotting
If Mr. Sam Rainsy
cannot force the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) to hold fresh election and to
reform the NEC, he may keep the CPP alone in the National Assembly until the
next mandate. He will let take time to solve the problems and expects his party
will win the next election.
He will make a big
mistake if he chooses this scenario because there won’t be a reform of election
system that could be accepted by all parties for the next mandate.
By not participating
in the reform process, Mr. Sam Rainsy and the CNRP are giving a knife to the
ruling party. It’s not possible that the CPP will launch extensive necessary
reform of the NEC to give benefit to the CNRP without the CNRP itself to push
the process. This can be a political suicide. The democracy in Cambodia may
move backward as the country will be governed by only one party.
Third Scenario:
Public rallies to overthrow the current government:
Mr. Sam Rainsy might
be spoiled by the increasing number of his supporters and the CNRP. Such
impression might start from the day he arrived in Cambodia after a long
self-exile in France because in his political life Mr. Sam Rainsy had ever seen
such a lot of people to welcome him. He might think that he has enough power to
overthrow the current government through the Arab Spring model which has
overthrown a lot of dictated governments. He might think of a Cambodia spring.
When the “Jasmine Revolution” first started in Tunisia and later became the
“Arab Spring,” Mr. Sam Rainsy went to Tunisia in July 2011 to learn how to
defeat the government through people’s power.
The Jasmine Revolution
in Tunisia and Arab Spring brought about change of the government in Tunisia
and Arab such as Egypt, Algeria, and Libya, with loss of many lives. Are the
supporters of Mr. Sam Rainsy ready to sacrifice their lives for political
cause? The dark history of Cambodia in the Pol Pot’s regime, during which a lot
of people were brutally killed, makes it difficult to conclude that the
supporters of the opposition party are ready to sacrifice their lives for
political cause.
It’s also difficult to
expect a bright future for Cambodia if he chooses this kind of strategy to
topple the government by struggling on the street. It may bring danger rather
than luck.
This strategy will
easily trigger violence, fighting among Khmer people and civil war causing a
lot of death and casualties. Will Mr. Sam Rainsy choose this strategy? A friend
of Mr. Sam Rainsy told me that Mr. Sam Rainsy was a clever person and also
cared about the national interest. Thus, he wouldn’t choose this bloody way. He
just wanted a positive change for Cambodia. I hope the words of Mr. Sam
Rainsy’s friend are true.
Therefore, the first
scenario is the best scenario for Cambodia. The CNRP can fight with the ruling
Cambodian People’s Party in the National Assembly. It should be the first
choice.
A reliable source said
that the agreement between the two parties can be reached during the next
summit, expected to be held after the Khmer New Year.
May this New Year
become the year of an end to the political deadlock.
Source:
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